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1 ÔÎĵÄÓйز¿·Ö
In the medium term China faces daunting challenges. Its banks are the worst
in the world that we know about. In each generation a population about the
size of the United States will move from China¡¯s countryside to its cities.
Each year 12-13 million new workers join the work force. The impact of productivity
on employment in manufacturing is much more severe than in our country. All
these people need jobs. For a considerable period China¡¯s high growth can
be sustained, but only through heroic reform measures by China¡¯s leaders.
If somehow China powers through these problems, by 2020 its aging population
will have the worst ratio of workers to non-workers of any population in the
world, including Japan¡¯s. That is to say, without some miraculous new policies
the Chinese economy may well hit a wall in that period. In 2020, they will
still be a very poor country by our standards.Even if their success continues
until then, they will not be taking over the world.
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