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йȫ - һλרҵ֤

William H. Overholt(2005/5/19)
С(2005/11/10)

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1 ߵļ˵
2 йȫ(ȫ)
3 - »߱⡢ٴ¼ӱڵһЩ


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һ ߺͱļ

(һ)William H. Overholt ¹˾(The RAND Corporation, һҷӮо)̫(Center for Asia Pacific Policy)κϯоԱ,й - øĸδһ³ġThe Rise of China: How Economic Reform Is Creating a New SuperpowerһߣԭѧоԱܲۻ¼µҪͶеϯѧҺսרҡ

()йȫ򻯡China and GlobalizationһģΪר֤1091λڵоúͰȫίԱᣨThe U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission<USCC>֤(2005519)ύһ֤ʡ߳ƣеͽ˵,ӦΪ¹˾оߵ

֤ͼ֤йȫߵΰʷʤ֮һй𣬲ʹй,ʹ棻ĺôԶԶڸĸ档йҪѳѡӦʵǵؿйijЩ⡣ȫ򻯵йٻııƣĸߵйͼı˵ʽйҲûʵȡ֧ȨйŷdzϾĹսйܳɹӦЩս,侭õĸٷչڲõĽͻشۣʹйľܹδйҲȡƵλˣйвǴġӦӭûбҪйڴйչΪձĸԣĹңijЩƣijЩ洦,ӵһIJҵṹ߻ڴйڹSȡθĸľ顣

() ԭַ
(1)www.uscc.gov/hearings/hearingarchive.htm#hearings2005
֤ϵĿͷ¼ύı֤,ֱ¼USCC֤ר<йȫ򻯵δ>(CHINA AND THE FUTURE OF GLOBALIZATION) (p123-126p126-132)ר300ҳ,¼˸ô֤()רȫרҿͷ֤ʣȫء
(2)www.rand.org/publications/CT/CT244/

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ˣйѸȫʹ˼޵ҵľҵѼ4400ҵĹλҲɥʧ2500125칫˾ԤƽѸΪ36ҡ

йȫ򻯵ijɹڶڹشӰ졣йӡһΪŵľеijЩڵʵĻܵ˺ű崫ͳˣΪйľҲòʼͶʲȡΪŵ߲ٶԴ⽫ıķչսԣΪǵĹ˾ȫΧĻ ĵǡǡ෴йδ߶Ǵ̼ڹó׺ͶʡʵϣйõѸʹձľõõգʹҪڹܻ赲һΣյȫԾ˥ˡ

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йijɹִʷҪķչ֮һ,ĸٳɳһʵ,ƶй֧粢вǵʽĻ,ǾʹˡͬĸߵйѰıκҵʽйľʷصм沢л;ҵս,2020,й빤˿ز㡢Ҫʧȥ˿ڱȶ񻯵ΣǶԣй÷չΪձĸԣңһЩƣһЩơм,йڳѸٷչԴ,ӦӭǸе־塣

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ĸǰй,ȫ򻯵ķߡھʵԸߡľ,Թʻһ֮Ҫȫ֯´Ǽ¡ë󶫵쵼,֧ԮصĶ - еڹڷ޺޵Ĵ󲿷ֵǵĴѧ

йߵĴģĻƻس̶ʵΪʮĸУë󶫵Ͷ񵱼˼(peasant chiliasm)[1]ָ£ѧȺڣѴ߼ɲڱľأҪĽ֯ţݻ˴󲿷ֵĻŲͼȫƻҵļȳơ

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ԣǶǶԣйƶη⵱УĸֻһССIJ20ͣйǸԣͳһĹҵĻôĽǵڶսǵڶŷսʹǵһս,Ҳȫͬйձԡ¼սᷢս˶ȼ١ڳһ͵ʱΪйƶǺ磬˵й񣬸˲صĴۡҪһǿй

йȫ򻯵ijɹDzٻ⡣йѲһǿ޴ͻյشйѲԮǡ޺ĶңҲͼ߽Ľơй̩ͷɱʱεİ֧֣˹ʻһкó֯ڹȶó׺ͶЭ̡й,ʹ.

սʼĶ߾ѾȷĻ:ܹͨҵڲĸͺνȫ򻯣ʹϾܶĵھϵõôǾܹʵŷǵİӮսһȹ̵ǵľӱһ̡,ЪƻǷԮʹҹȡһֳڵĺս:빹Ҫȫ֯׿гЧľйϵ֮УԴЭȶǵ硣

ʵѾ֤һսʷΪɹĵԵս֮һЧ˵ľ޴ǹȥĵ˺Ѷ֮֯Сˣǹڣһսȴ˲ٷ飬ʱһֻšҹҪҵеķ֯ҵЬҵ̲ϵطҹձ̨塢ǡй֮óסȥΪձǷ񽫻̲ҹȫҵҪʲڸ͵ӻǣ˷ҲԽǡȻͷ? ҹõĸ棬ûΣ? ,Ƕ̨ͺľ÷չĹҲûбɶԿµĶͳεԮ? ʵ֤ǵĵǣÿһζǹֵģǵս,еij϶ȡ˳ɹǵİȫǵľ÷٣ںɻǵó׻ҵ񡣽죬ͬҲûбҪΪйǡ

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ǵսУԭûԤǣһսԾȻܹѰйڵǵЩɵйҲƵ羭֯ϵ͵ΰƻ֮С

٣йȴԶձ̬ǵȫϵйõĿų̶ȴ󳬹ձ2004ȣйĹó׶൱GDP70%ձ,Ϊ24%й606ԪֱͶʣձ侭ùģйӦ൱ʵľûָʱڣʵʻõֱͶȴֻ201Ԫ

йȫ򻯲ھõĶ⿪ţҪƶȵȫ򻯡йѡķչսԣγ(19Ҷ)ձȡսԵ֮ʱձΪѧϰȽDzţ緶Χѡĺ(Ӣ)Ľƶ(¹)ԼõĶȻһͣձֳ˱չ򣻶йȴѴ峯ıչغë󶫵ũ壬ȡһ־ͬȫԵ

յйΪѰѵ˹֮ߣɳšйӺ(ʹ֮ӦԼҪ)ģм͹˾ֶΣ漰㷺ĸƶȺͰ취: ʻƱ׼Ӣ۵֤ȯľʳйƶȡΪ̨֯ʽм֤ȯͶʹƶȡԺ¼º̨徭Ϊοľ÷չսԼĶЩ仯УΪҪ:йķιѾΪûĻʽʵϰӢΪܹй˵ĵڶԡҿԲڱѧ,ڱϺɷø߼ԱҪҲǣйѾ⣬ڹ(Э)ʵнܽ˰ǵĺȥϣѧ

ȻЩ仯𽥷ġDzһӾͰĻƶȺͷһְҵʦʦڵĸո𲽵ĹҡˣЩ仯йķ,κҶÿ졣ΪҪǣЩ仯ڼĸ»ѧ,ʵе"ļ,йĻ"()ķ롣йѧȴˡ編εʵʩгĴٽıǧĴͳйĻĺľ

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йȵеңҲȵһеңȫ򻯡йȡõȫɹСĸ↑šȫ򻯵ӡǡйͬձͺ侭øٳɳʱڣҲȫ򻯣ԹóסͶʺ͹ھûȴʵʩ˱ȽյйԶΪϸơ

ȫʹй˷dzʹĵҵľҵѴ19951100020053ʱ6600ЩΪҵĹλѾתƵйǽԾط֣йҵĹλѴ199454003000ЩݾܴĿģȴԳַӳйΪӭWTOԱսòܵĵľҳ̶ȡ,ȻҵľҵȻάһȶˮƽҵԤƽӸ߷ʱڵ125Ҽ36ҡ, йгķݶ󲿷ѱҵռݡ
йھ̶֮أιҲ֡ǣΪйԸĵʷϻûĸˮƽ͹棬ѸٵĸơڸĸտʼʱϺͶǻͬķװȥ޾ɣȱ飻ӵӻֱ֮ճƷũ壬Ӫ󵽴ӡڽյϺͨľͥ׾ٵؾӵһ̨ϵĵӻӪѾѸٸƣй˶ֽ֧һȫ򻯡 йȫ

йȫ,ȻҲҲ˺ܴӰ졣ҪӰ죬ӡȵľߺ;ʵı﷽档ӡԶ᳹˵ıóߣȡֱͶʵʵбΪ"֤ͳ"徭ÿ,֮ļ̵ľúˡ侭˶ܵ,㲻ǰ1991걬Σͽйȡõijɹ,ӡȲʹףĵȫ򻯵,ô,ܹ١ӡȵйٶҲΪ侭õʻһƶ˿ڵҲѴȼ١ȥӡȣϸ¸ȥ㽫ᷢƺֻڶǵܿõϣźͻ й,ӡȵ˾,Ѵʹù쵼߰ߵصĿ,Χתڹıͬľ档ӡڹĹϵ(ʱӡ͹ϵ),ֵעĿӡйϵӡϵ,֮ȥ˺ܴĸơʵ,ڵӡйϵ״,60ijͻõġӡȵIJҵѲپйľ,Ƕӡȵľ,Ϊӡó˳졣

йӡȵľ߲˾޴Ӱ죬ֻǺܿѾʼĸΧڵһѡֱ,ĵ,ձ,ֱͶʶ൱ӵ̬ȡձͺ,ɱ̩,ٵӡ,ľ,ֱͶԵ,ԿԽг׼ſ߶˰ѡƽ˾ۻЩҲǽֱͶ,Ĵ(Ǻ),ڵĴ(ձ)Щͨ˹ծ񸺵̩趨˸߶˰,ضͶ߼˰ӡ˵ץס,ƾʵָ,Կϵ»ըʳƷ𹥻սûôµˡ й̨ۡ¼¹ȥijɹ,ڽ͸ծƽ֧ȡ˳ɹ⽫𽥴ʹҸıԼ÷չķʽйһӰиµ,ޡȡķʽ,ͨȡùڻд,ͶʵͨյеĴ,زҵķչʹҵ͹ҹȵУԵIJΣʹ˹ĿƲҵȨ˹ʧ͸ܵķʹֵ֧ܵĴ˾ȡ˶ԽС˾˾IJƽơǶҪǣǵĹ˾ķչᡣйľʹЩҵĴ󲿷ֹ˾Ͷʳšһ仯ʹĹ˾йܴصõô.

ʮǰ,,йijɹڹó׺Ͷй,ӶЩұ˺ֵʵȴǡǡ෴иޡֱͶʱʾӭĹ,ӡȡձ,ͶѾˡй,ĹҲʵĴšΪӦһ˵,ͶʵĵҲˡ

ȫ򾭼żҵĭѶԵʱ,񺫹ͷɱĹ,ȴԼйĴڶܾ˥֮ࡣΪҪ,й̼ձľ,ʹԴӲлָ羭ձ״ŷաһյԣôҲ֡ձľ޶ծ˻ᷢŵЧӦķգձõıȻ󲨼յȫΧľñйṩıķչռ̼ձõĻַָƺѾΪȥûʲô飬̸۹δȫ򾭼ôȴȫ˵йȫ򻯣ʹǴҵ֮뼱ȫ򾭼õĴ֮С

ˣǡ÷羭˥ڵйеõ档ԭǣѾӦЩһ겻һĿ̵óǵ˹ĴͻȻ֣йԼٵóѾ˺ܴĸƣĿǰʷõġΡͲ¼Ǻͷ޵ڶڵƶңҪʱ򣬴йľ޴л档ЩҵĸصģʲôԮƻҲǹʻһĻƽףйЩҵIJƷij

֮йҪãձŷ޵ĸ˶һġ븻Ϊڣ֮Ϊ飬ܻøӸԣ

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йȫ򻯺;ҲǴѹȻЩѹԵ,ھϺս,ȴ޹ؽҪˡһҵı主ڵķ֯ƷЬҾߺճõ,󶼻תơͲ,תƵձ,ִձתƵϺ̨,תƵǺڵйĵѾ˼ʮ,һȥѻʮʱ׼ڵַ֯Ʒĵ֪ڷʲôͬڷĵйȫ򻯶ܵĵѹʵġĵʵҲСκιġ

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й⣺ϵĵλǵʽǷйشսһ,ԻشǵʽܵսĸߵйǰͬëͳµйҲͬѰıǰԼķʽǼѾϵ֮С

εľ˱Ƚϸӵ⡣й𣬺֮ĹңøҲִ̨庣Ͽһضάǵ֧λԽԽѡǵľҪԸһصġѵġҲսˣΪй۵ͬ20ǰΪձ۵һվסŵġйľӲò䳤11000Ӣġδƽµı߾еľԶδٵ񡣴ӾϽйҲȥϵһСûĸ򶼴ơ δһʱڣйپ޴սй֪СԼÿʮ꣬൱˿й˴ũӿСƽÿ꣬12001300Ͷ߼뵽ҵ֮СЧʵ߶ҵĹɵļѹԶǹҪصĶࡣڶ˶ҪйĸٳɳҲά൱һʱ䣬ֻпй쵼ߵĴ󵨵ĸĸʩſʵ֡Ϊص,йͶԸЩս˿ڵĸ仯,2020,йĹ˿ڶԷǹ˿ڵıΪģձҲ硣ζţйľÿʱصĴۣйҵijЩ漣Ч¶Բߡǵı׼2020йȻһdzƶĹҡʹйijɹܹǸʱйҲȥ֧硣

йȫ򻯺ȶҪƽߡһйij֣һָӵĵԵξ档ó׺ͶʵϣGMO֮ĸ־ϣйǵҪѡͱԣڲȻڷ磬ĿȴһµģйΨһΪĻ顣ڿֲͷϣй޵ҪѡǴһµĸ֮:ھºʶ̬ձǵѡҪκ;ϣйȴΪѣձǷǣΪһոµʷ档

йӰ죬Ѳ̨庣ϿƣǼˡΪ֧йȫ򻯶ĴۡйӰ,йϵȨ,ΪǵĴͳһЩȨյĵشΧҪ䶯ѾǶԴ˱dzעΧƳΣյı⣬ǹڻǵѵУķ硣עĿ,޳IJԡҪйӺãйȴδһ롣ڶǣͨɻȫ򻯣֯ʵʩԾΪļֵߣ˶Ӯ˸õ֧֡ȻѱΪ˴ͳľ÷չսԣתѽ϶ľڷսй,ȴʹ˸еëĵԵսԣתͨɻȷչ˫߾áǵľ߷棬ѱΪ˶߾ɻתı߶λ˫óЭй,ȴѳΪҪƽߡйδԵķǽСĵؼйóĶǹ(ASEAN)(޹)ľӢǣһذ2003̫ú֯(APEC)ԻΪеĹתķˮ롣ʰ뵺ͶǵЩչ,޵ΰͼı仯ǣйǣֱ仯ֻҪԸ⣬ǾȻܹȡλ ڳɹʧܵ˱зdzȷʶʵʩĶսԺ羭ƣƶй˾ޱ䡣1970й2070йƻԡйٲʢں֧ȫ֯Ƕԣı仯ʧܣdzɹʵϣʷΰijɹ֮һǸ,ǹСȵĴۣǵõģһٵľû顣ǶԣʽײʧܣdzɹȻȡõijɹܾԱ֤йһֱƴ֧ǵȫ֯ǣǻӭйķ٣ǾͻȡɹĻ󻯡֮Ƿйķ٣Ǿķ

Ϊһȫ˵йĹϵйձչΪһԣľ,˫ӵһIJҵϵڴ,йڹSȡõθĸᆳ飬ձͺ򽫻ǵͶʸΪŵйѧϰøĸľ顣йȫ򻯵ת䣬ѳΪʷΰĶߵʤ֮һ

ҵĵһλ쵼Herman KahnдһΪڳֵձ顣ձרһֱģձľһijɹ,˻᲻沢ձԴ˵ģHerman Kahnش:DzˡDzǡǽȡõһгɾ͡
Herman Kahn ΰսԼҺΰİߡ

()

ע[1] ԭ"under the guidance of Mao Zedongs peasant chiliasm."

chiliasm (millennialism or millenarianism)ԭָ: The doctrine stating that Jesus will reign on earth for 1,000 years.½<Ӣʵ>Ϊ"ǧ"

peasantڴ˴ƺָڹ˶Եũ񣬶ָڴԹ֪ʶ˵ȶԵġ²Ͷ(Ϊ֪)

peasant chiliasmë󶫵ʷۣĵƺӳ߶ëʷ۵ɫ⡣,ë󶫿߹޴ƶǴʷȫԼ


- »߱⡢ٴ¼ӱڵһЩ

һ ƺڲ֮ļ

1 2020꣬йΪ,ٴ(ù۲о),¼"ٴ". »2005.10.31.

2 ¹˾泪˥й ѧԲ⡷,»߼ӵ,¼"".»ɨ2005.10.31.

3 2020꣬йdz - ¹˾桷,йȫ򻯡ԭIJݵ,ߺӱ, ¼"ӱ",ԭΪͶ˿ڼٺ󽫶йʲôӰ죿һ(ٴ,˵д"߾߲"οõ)ĸ www.dajun.com.cn . һЩվת,ѵһЩ."ٴ"֮Է,ij̶ֳ,ƺѵijЩ۵й,ƺҲˡ

кβ֮?

(һ)Ź

ݡйȫ򻯡һߵ˵ͽһ˵ģӦΪ¹˾оߵĹ۵㣨ԭp1עȻ,"ӱ"Ѹ˵ǡ¹˾"ı棬Ź, "ٴ"""հ˵,Զﴫ.

ݱ˵,¹˾,Overholt ,δΪ<2020꣬йdz>ı¡õǿɿĻ,ôӱOverholtġйȫ򻯡еɲֺһ,ٹԡ2020꣬йdzı,ߵͬ,ǿ֮

()ԭ - In 2020, they will still be a very poor country by our standardsԤ

1 ԭĵйز
In the medium term China faces daunting challenges. Its banks are the worst in the world that we know about. In each generation a population about the size of the United States will move from Chinas countryside to its cities. Each year 12-13 million new workers join the work force. The impact of productivity on employment in manufacturing is much more severe than in our country. All these people need jobs. For a considerable period Chinas high growth can be sustained, but only through heroic reform measures by Chinas leaders. If somehow China powers through these problems, by 2020 its aging population will have the worst ratio of workers to non-workers of any population in the world, including Japans. That is to say, without some miraculous new policies the Chinese economy may well hit a wall in that period. In 2020, they will still be a very poor country by our standards.Even if their success continues until then, they will not be taking over the world.

2 ĵҪ

(1) йٵսǷdzϾ,Щս, A У֮B ޴ij˿ѹC ޴ľҵѹD ˿ڶԷǹ˿ڱض񻯣2020֮
(2) δһʱڣйõĸٳɳܹάֵ,ȡڴ󵨵ĸĸʩ
(3) йҵ漣Ч¶Բ,йõijɳҲ2020꼱١
(4) ǵ(˵)׼2020йȻһdzƶĹҡ
(5) ʹйijɹܹǸʱ,йҲ֧硣

3 ˼ļ

(1) ǿйٵսԺӦЩսԣδȫйӦЩս,ûж,йͳȫ򻯵Ĵ,йľδ󵨡δ,2020,йľһݺݵײǽߵжصģйľߴ󵨵ƽĸ,ҵ漣Ч¶Բ,ô,йҲпܳɹӦЩս,Ҳпʹ侭õķչشۡ

(2) 2020й"ȻǸdzĹ"ж,ġ趨ʲôҲ⡣

һǣ趨һǣйܳɹӦٵϾս,⾭õķչܵشۣڶǣ˵ı׼ݴˣҲ֪δֱӱйܹɹӦٵϾսӶʹ侭õķչش۵Ļôʹ˵ı׼,2020йҲδȻһdzƶĹңҲ˵˵ı׼,йһdzƶĹң

һǣֻ趨һ˵ı׼ݴˣҲһ仰ߵйʹа취ɹԸٵսйõķչʹشĴ,ˮƽʹڵٶȼõ,˵ı׼,2020й,ȻһdzƶĹҡ

⣬ĸȽϷߵԭ,˵ʵڵ,߱ڷԭĺ,ڵڶ,Ҳ޾ԵţҲҪ߱˺֪

߸Ϊ,ߵ˼ʲô,ڶݱȵһ,Ÿӽ͹ʵ˵йı׼˵,ʮйй,ô,Ƕν2020йȻһdzƶĹһԤ,һܾ,ΪŵĶ⹥ҲΪǣı׼ʮı׼,ǽı׼˵ʮйȣʮ,ǽô(֪Ե˾GDP2020й˾GDPԤֵĻ)ν2020йȻһdzƶĹһԤ,žͲе,˵ὫΪһĻ(ǶԲȫ˽йЩ,Ƕй˶)

(3) жstillһʡ˼,йǸʮǸ(Ȼǰı׼)Ϊstill,ԤԵ˼Ͳ,ʮйڵйҪ,й,ʮй

(4) ߵһԤԲһж,ΪйвߵǶһ۾,йķչͷȻ,ˮƽĸȻdzѸ,ڿԤĽ(ʮ,ʮ),йȻһ,λòŶй˵θڵͶе¡

4 йı

(1) 2020꣬йdz(ӱı),2020꣬йΪ?(ٴ)
(2) 2020꣬ǵı׼һdzĹҡ(ӱ)
(3) ˥йá(),һš(ٴ)

5 йԭ (1) ӱȻԸΪݵٴ£ߵıⶼ߸ӵ, ʹԭԤԾԻ󻯡,жȡ֮ӡ

(2) ӱ彫ԭеġIn 2020, they will still be a very poor country by our standardsΪ2020꣬ǵı׼һdzĹҡ, ǡ2020꣬ǵı׼ȻһdzĹҡûаԭеstillٴԶﴫ

(3) Ƿ ˥йá,ߵĹ۵Ƿš,ҾСһԡ,Ѿǰ(ѿԭ)Ķ߻Լжϡ

ڼЩʱĸо

(1)
--- սû,йˡ

(2) ٴ
--- λѧû ? ô뱾˶ԭĵӡͬ?

(3) ٴԮĺӱ岢뱾ռԭļԶ
--- ԭˡŹȡ塣

˵֮ǿܵ,Overholt֤йؼ(Ȱ˵ľ߻ӭйҪ赲йϣйΪԣĹ),йԣһֺ(Ϊ)¶Ļ,ô,Ҳᷢĸ̾:ⷬ,ȻйĹٷý嵱¿ηΡ

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