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Ԫ

2010꣺йֿǰ--98ͷרҵĵѯ

ѧ־Ը븣о Ԫ

2004220

ҪרҺȷй2010ǰΣأΪʧҵ⡢ũ⡢ڷաƶࡢ̨̬⡢򡢹ȫϵȫ򻯺óܱ߰ȫ¸⡢⡢̲͹⡢ʲʧΣ⣬ȵȣй2010ǰIJȷأܻʱھȫ淢չǾҵڡԼ̨̬Ҳɺӡ

һԣ

ڹȥļУйרңרҺͷרҡרҺ͹רϵ̸ͨۡ绰̸顢ʾ顢ӽʼʾһȷй2010ǰӰҹչķءܷյԼܷķնԹ񾭼úᷢչij̶ȡ

У龡ʹͬšͬרҵͬ֯ͲͬҵרҶܹ뵽ȷϹ󣬿һõ98λרҵ֧֣ǽ˲̶ͬȣͬʽĽҲյǵĴרҵϣǾʹרҵרҵܹǾáᡢº⽻ȷ棻ְƺְϣѡڡоԱйزŸּϹԱȷЩרҵı׼ǣDZоѧƴͷ˻ڹһӰ죬ѡԱͬʱҲѧ߻ijԼĶ⣬ڹγһӰ졣ǵйδչѾйעойᷢչĹרҴڣǾойᷢչרȡϵȡǵ֧֣磬2002йͳɶƥıѧϵThomas RaskiͲǵĵۣоɹҲפ֯רȡϵȡǵЩ֯Ϲפפ޿פػᣬȵȡЩԹ֯רҴǵӽԼйδչرй2010ǰչĿȫ򻯼ٵı£Ҫͬӽǵ˲ǵоۡ

յȷ˵ľֲ-1Щרھ⣨ͬרҵڵأķֲΪר81λԱϺڡֵȣ;ڹ֯ר17λۡձ䡢ϹϵͳС޿СػᣩרIJͬţԺоҡҷίСйСһܾ֡Ժ졢ͳƾ֡񲿡ίͶȣоͽѧλרԹԺչоġҷίоԺѧ廪ѧˮйѧѧԺйѧԺʦѧ׶ʦѧ뵳УйʹϵойũҵѧȵȣػۺϿоԺִѧоԱϿѧϺѧԺ֯ػᡢйϵȫίԱƥıѧ۳дѧĴѧѧ־СձŮӸ֪ѧر顢ʼоԺȵȡ

εУرѡһЩĿǰڹںܻԾķӪŵ쵼˲ǵĹḣǻԾʵʹĵһߣڲݸ֯жԼӽǡҹͬ򷢻ӻõķӪ֯ڳΪҹᷢչеIJɺӵ֯רйƶᡢй귢չᡢ뷢չожԮ㹫˾򾭼ой⽻ᡢйʽѧᡢй۾оᡢҵϻȵȡ

רҵְҵݺְƣΪȱйݲķ࣬ﲻܸȷͳơЩררҵϵķֲΪ45λ4λ16λʹϵ6λ2λ6λ17λ

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ר ררҵ רҹ
ר ר ʹϵ
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Դ2003괺ĵѯ

ͨרȷδչǿչҾᷢչгڹ滮оеһֳԣͳʷϽзԤ⡣ͼͨרȷṩһδĿԿܡǵĿͨרҵۺȷؼΣأΪгڷչṩһгڵս۹⡣ⲻǴͳϵδ-ͳϡݺͷרңͨר֮ĽԶԻȷδչơңеķضǽ಻ȷػϣʹʱDZʼռס

--ûһػй2010ǰƣ

--ÿһصı仯صı仯

--Щһ໥ǿӦ

--Щй2010ǰı仯ȡй2010ǰȡй߼ЧˣҪй2010ǰЧ

ʹרȷδĹؼȷѾΪһֳõԤⷽ19972000鱨ίԱThe National Intelligence Council, or NICֱͨרϵͳ-ѧ硢˼רҶԻȷ20102015ǰȫغ͹ؼȷأġ2010ȫƣΧδרҶԻ(Global Trends 2010: A dialogue About the Future with Nongovernmental Experts)2015ȫƣΧδרҶԻ(Global Trends 2015: A dialogue About the Future with Nongovernmental Experts)

оҪڹרҵİ£ȷй2010ǰӰҹչķءܷյԼܷķնԹ񾭼úᷢչij̶ȣͼйδչķչȥЩУЩdz־÷õģЩߵʵʩ𲽼

ȷϵǣϵ̨⡢ܱ߹ϵ¸桢ȫóڷաҵ⡢ũ⡢ࣨƶͳ磩⡢ʧҵ⡢򡢹ȫ̬ԴͻΣ˿⡢ΣϿЩ໥棬γһ2010ǰйսľ棬ݴԲ̶ͬȵȷһЩӰҹȫ潨СĿļֵIJȷءǵĻжǣй2010ǰٹʻԽԽӣʾԽԽңھúìԽԽͻԽԽӡ

ͬʱҪεѯ಻ѣҪڣ

--ûеõרҵ֧ҪרͨѶַȷԼھѺоԱơеרֻг˹λеרҵͨѶʽѾ˱оԱ˶Ŭͼרҽϵֹ׫д֮ǰδרȡϵ

--һЩר൱֧ǵĹвרҲϡҪ漸棺иרȷܾѯоԱ֮ϵרûиκεĻӦijЩԭʹһЩרҲܽѯݼ١ԼڵλȵȣרΪʱţԲܼʱظоԱȡʱDZϵʱߴٵIJԣרҵܸǵĻشٲרҸĻش𲢲поƱԭҲоԱרҹͨأųרзӦĿܡЩǽоҪȡĽѵ

רѯ⣬ǻоɹйδơǰᵽġ2015ȫƣΧδרҶԻ(Global Trends 2015: A dialogue About the Future with Nongovernmental Experts)вٹйδչоɹ¹˾ֵ֧Charles WolfġйĶϲߡFault Lines in Chinas Economic Terrain, RAND, 2003йרҵоɹȵȡ

й2010ǰΣ㡢

һרΪעΣ

רǵĺǴΪעΣġκѯSARSΣǰΣΪŻ⣬רǶйܷΣ⿼ǵñȽ϶ࡣרǵרҵͬǹעΣҲһעΣΣ࣬վר26.39%ھΣУǽΪעΣΣΪͨνĹΣ̬ԼԴΣҲǽΪעģ14.58%˹עΣΣΣͬΪ10.42%ΣΪ4.86%Ϊ6.94%ϣΣƶ⡢ʧҵ⡢ũ⡢ȱ⡢ΣȣΣΣܹע⣨ͼ-1 ǶΣĹע

ΣڿĵСǺܶרҶעΣΪΣһֵùעΪǶȱġҵú͸ȱģúЧ͸ȱģҵٸ䵣ģԼijЩƷʡĵDZڵΣΣԾ÷չֱӰ죬һԸĸʩʵʩӰ죬гȷչ£ΣʮΣյġ

⣬רǻעṫΣలȫϹϵͳõһҲϹרģðȫᰲȫĻȫҲ˽ΪȫΣ̨⣨רΪȻ³ç½ȡж̨ӺͶʱըܺڸм˽̬ΪΣרΪйľúѾ˾޴ı仯ǹһƶȵؽͺɴڸΣǵ䷴ӳĹΣƵĹ˺¼ձĸܣðαӲƷĵȣ⽻ΣרΪر̨⡢ϵʺΣ⡣ҹҪ20ƽȶⲿؼҪ̨⡣ϵĵ̨⣬ڳӦòȡʵ⽻ߣְ뵺޺˻ԭͨ⽻;ʺ⣬ҪˮйӦóΪһǿȻܳΪһǿˣܱ߹ҵѺùϵǿܱ߹ҵĺܱ߹ҳʶйչǴĻͨеľϵţγõܱ߹ʻҲΪΣȻһڵ⣬ϾѾDZܳʱˣһʱըʱ

רΪܷͬʱڶΣйٵսǸΣ໥ģÿһ־ֲΣȫΣ

Σͳйζʲô

רҺSARSǰΣΣΪйһdzеĴҲΪٷܡרǶΣDzһģ¼ࡣ

1ΣͳζŶijһΣζŽڵӦյᶯγص⡱ش󶯵صʱˡᷢƻ 񾭼ó־ҲΣܻᵼΣˮƽ½IJȡŶȼʵλ½ΣζšáķչͻȻʧȥƽ⡣ͨͻڴ˹ڿֻšҶֽΣ

2Σͳζ𺦡ȻҹֶνһЩ⣬Ӧÿ۵أɵ͹䡢ԼʵԽԽࡱȾζڻȾ˵Ľ𺦡ΣҪۣӴ۵ĴСӰ쾭áķչչٶȡͣ͡ˡĸĸͺ󣬽δȺľҵţڽͶϴž޴սƫעظߵȽӻʹйҵһҵͣڵˮƽͬʱȱߵȽ˲žҵѣˮƽͶ޷ʵҵҹصˮֺͿܵصĻΣʷһֳʱ䡢ΧĴ󺵴ԡԵƣǧһƬ뻷ܻԵĴᾭõĿٷչ׶ΣȻĴƽȻƣijԱ⡣һЩ˾GDPﵽ7000-10000Ԫʱ߳񻯵͹ȵġҹĿǰĻȻ񻯹У侭÷չIJڼӴ󣬼ʹõҪﵽ˾7000ԪˮƽҲ൱ľ롣Σķֱвȫ潨СĿʵ֡˻ת

3Σͳζ޷ӦԳѡΣζ͹ɢܲ˳ѡΣζᾭõķӦıȻΣΣΣܳʲôͻ¼΢Ļпֲ/ʵϹȥ¼ڲͬʱзֻǹģСûвȫӰѡڹⷽ棬ΣζſܷսҹӦսֱӶԿΣζŷ˶ÿһ˶ǺΣյ顱

4ΣͳζŶԿΣҡǵģ᲻ȶءйƻDZȽϴġνΣҪָԵĴģ飬߲㷢ķѡ⽻ΣҪָ̨⵼ֱ֮ӵľ¶ԿơΣָ⴦¾ôȻ¡Σָ¾ֲᶯΣָ򸯰ܡûºֲܲȡ

5ΣͳζգΣΣľΣгֻšᶯֲȨһѾӡᡢ͢ȹҷҹĿǰܶ࣬ծȨӸ߲¡ŵ迪Žгһʵɸʣֻʱ⣩սˮ档һΣҹٱӡᡢ͢ȹҸľ棬κιʻҶйҹƶʶ̬ȷ⡣ҶΪʵʩ䷴֮Ŀġϸ90˹ֵľ治Dzҹݵġ֮Ŀǰҹϵͳδ߱͵ջΣڲⲻ١ܲЧʵ¡Աܡרҵ˲ȱ⣬ҹƸĸ﷽治дͻơô⽫ȥҲСӾõӽͶʾΣĸԴʧܵͶʳ˴ծûдκμֵйΣкͽϵͳǵĻ˺ˡ

6Σͳζųͻڳʧҵȱᱣ϶ԽԽIJԽԽũڳȱᱣϺ͹ԼȱȨϡũУũij½ũȱҽũиìܵػ͸ӻضʹDZΣijЩշ¼ɽصͻΣ¼õķչͣͣôһᡢԼķΣͻ֮ΣûתΪΣΣʹչʱŻӵʧҵƶ󣬸ܣũЩϵһIJܻζҡ߶˵ΣĴڷӳϵȱΣĵ͹ӶִӺͲȡӦĴʩʹ̬һ񻯡

Σ޶񻯽޷޸ľ棬ȡʩԷͶơ

й2010ǰΣĿ

й2010ǰǷᷢӰʱھᷢչ̵شΣ77λר˻ش51λΪᷢشΣ26λΪᣬֱռ66.23%33.77% ͼ-2й2010ǰشΣжϡ˵󲿷רΪй2010ǰҹᷢչսϴʱڣ˵Σ෢ڡʵԴ޽ΣԽԽʶΣǶ󡱡ȫ򻯽չййڷͷ˼֮ϡڶҶ⣬޹ҾٵĹͬǼйҶȱһƵĹгȫ򻯱£ڽںͶ㱩¶šгͿȫ򻯽УйڽںƷ㽫ԽԽԡ

רΪй2010ǰΣҪע⣬Ŀǰڻ̸Σڷպܴ󣬲ҪӰ졣һЩִ⣬ǾӪ⣬ҲйϵȻⲻй⡣⣬йϵǷdzģڹ֯Ժܵͣݻɴģᶯشڣγʵʵᶯ㡣Σʧҵ⡢ƶֵӡǸ⣬ũ񹤣رũеܹľӢΪй2010ǰȶ쵼Ŀǰײȱҵᡢᱣϡϡ͹һۣũᰲȫص᲻ȶȫǵᰲȫIJ֧ͶɱйͶĹʾƻ᲻ڡڽڻܵõЧƣй2010ǰΪᶯĸԴĿǺܴģΣĵʧҵ¸ڡƶ⽻֯һΣԴԣԽԽ˿δ᲻ȶǰ

ȻעǣǰѾ̸ģǶΣDzһģشΣ״̶̬ȡʽҲŸԵ⡣ΣܷݻɼҵᶯдڽһоSARSľҪڹ۲ΣʱҪرСģ侳װƣοЩܷ֮IJȷ¼ʵϾδĵѾDzʵ۴ӹڻǵ⣬2000鱨ίԱı涼δ10굽15йչڵIJȷԡ

ģй2010ǰΣ

רой2010ǰֵܳΣԸߵ

ڿߵΣרǵĻشģͼ-3Ƶǡᡱռ21.25%ڡռ18.75%áռ12.50%ҵռ10.00%ͼ2010ǰܳΣ򡱡

ڿԴθߵΣרǵĻش(ͼ-4)Ƶǡáռ12.82%ᡱռ11.54%Σռ8.97%ڡռ8.97%ռ8.97%ũ⡱ռ7.69%ҵռ7.69%ͼԴθߵΣ

ڿԵΣרǵĻش(ͼ-5)ƵǡΣռ12.16%ռ12.16%ȫռ12.16%ᡱռ9.46%

ǿԿᡱڡáҵΣũ⡱ȫܵ˽϶Ĺע⿴һ壬ԲֵͬƵνͳƵĻ½

ϿճƵΣǰΪᡱռ14.22%áռ11.21%ڡռ11.21%ռ8.62%Σռ8.19%ҵռ6.90%ȫռ6.03%Ρռ5.60%ũ⡱ռ5.17%⽻Σռ3.88%̨塱ռ3.88%

ǰЩ¹࣬Ϊᣨࡢҵȫȣãũ⡢ڣ⽻Σ½棩ģó½ۣרΪй2010ǰشΣҪ41.25%Ϊ35%Ϊ7.5%ͼ-6

ᷢչ󣨰ƶࡢࡢࣩʧҵ¸ⱻΪǸ߷յھ򣬽ڷաũΪǹġΣ𡢳ƶ󡢹״񻯣ǵͰ̲ɢв׼ijɳȨҪ󡢸ʧҵʡܷġȶ񹤵Ŀɧҡijͻũ⡢⡢ȫΣǻǹؼ߲ɷָӱĿ˵ΪĿ󡱡

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Ҫǿһ¶ı봦DzõǷʽʾǣǽй2010ǰᷢչսб̶ȸжϡ

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1ϸʾеIJ壬ڳ̶ȣָGDPٶȼ2ٷֵϣΪ1.9-1.5ٷֵ㣬һΪ1.4-1.0ٷֵ㣬ϲΪ0.9-0.5ٷֵ㣬Ϊ0.4ٷֵ¡ԿӡءءӦһḶ́ԽתΪһֵм㡣

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ݱ-2Կַصɢ̶ȱȽϽӽ˵ϽԲͬķص̬ȵɢ̶DZȽϽӽġУ̨⡱¸ɢ̶󣬼󣬶ʧҵ⡱ũ⡱ڷաɢ̶С̬ԱȽϼСӾֵϿũ⡱ʧҵ⡱ȷصԳ̶Խϸߣ¸ܱ߰ȫȷصԳ̶Խϵ͡

Ҫ˵ǣѼݣԽСר Բͬص֡ķԼߵس̶ȡΪEXCEL2000ûӦĹܣг˲ͬרҵ̬Ⱦֵ͸רҵ̬׼ɴ˿Լ˽ⲻͬרҵ̬ȵļƺɢơΪרҵרҵпܻӰ쵽̬ȣ軹ҪFнһ֤

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Ϊܹ˽רҶδȫ濴Ϊ˲רҶδжϣרҺĹ˿⣬רԼشΪй2010ǰֵܳ⣬ΣģӰй2010ǰչءЩĴ𰸻ûн޸ģ˼򵥵Ĺ࣬չֳרǵԭ۵㣨-3

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ġҪصƷ

רҺȷй2010ǰΣأΪʧҵ⡢ũ⡢ڷաƶࡢ̨̬⡢򡢹ȫϵȫ򻯺óܱ߰ȫ¸⡢⡢̲͹⡢ʲʧΣ⣬ȵȣй2010ǰIJȷأܻʱھȫ淢չǾҵڡԼ̨̬Ҳɺӡ

˼άģʽ;ҵսģʽ£ҵ⽫Ϊҹδչв̫׽⿪ĽᡣʧҵζDZڵͶԴûеõãʹﲻݣһԭǣʧҵʻʹƶĿǰʧҵʳһֱӸ߲£дҵλ߲Ч᲻µЧԲߡؿĿǰȡȥҵDzЧġѰµľҵߺսԣµƻڼ⡣δƻҪսȷҵ˼·רѾע⵽⣬ҹҵٶ½ԽԽ죺塯ڼ䣬һٷֵ㣬ܹ90ҵ᣻ڡ塯ڼ䣬ȻGDPÿ10%ٶȵÿһٷֵ㣬ֻܴߡʮҵλƣ׾ܸоʮһ塯ڼҹҵƵϾҲƵĿҪ¹˾ʧҵԼʱҲijƶƶδ10ӰйÿGDP0.3-0.8ٷֵ㣬ΪʧҵɽҪʡɵʹʺͼʱγɡʵǣǰͽһϳʱڣҹҵʮϾͶìܺ;ҵṹìܽ֯һ𣬻¸ʧҵԱپҵָУҵҵԼũ帻ͶתƵ໥֯ĸ޵Ͷ޵Ͷгìܽڴڣ-4δ൱һʱڣҹͶгڹ״̬2006꣬йȫWTO3%ʳڣҲũҵҵǧũͶתƵĹģ1000Ļϣÿ껹200Ŀǰˮƽ£ҹũҵͶҪĺͶ1.5ңδ1.9ҵũʣͶҪתƳҵְ¸ںʧҵԱһʱԽά1000ңⲿϴ󣬼ܵһپҵΪѣ2000꿪ʼ2010껹ҹѧıҵ߷壬ߵԺУУбҵʧȥĻᣬĻʼΪУУĿǰ£ѧҵ⽫Ǹ⡣ҪҹľҵеսԴʩ޼£Ϊķչ۶Թ񾭼÷չսش

-4 2000-2005ͶԤ

ϵ 2000 2005 20010 2015 2020
E=0.11 71220 74005 76479 78606 80971
E=0.13 71368 74417 77134 79477 81890
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ԴҷչƻίԱɲֻĻ࣬2002914ա15ҳ

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⣬ҹʸߣʱγ˳йʱгͽϵȴûнϵȱʱ˳ƶͼܹܣй÷չһȱݣҲйҵӪ񻯵ĸԭ򡣹ռ80%Ŵʽ75%ľȴ첻30%ĹҵֵܲԤµлһֱĹҵѪܹҵIJۣϵͳĸĸչϼӴ˽ڷաҲΪȨΪʱ뾭ù̵Ĵⲿǵ¾˸ܺ͹ʲʧĸԭĿǰеĸǽӽ25%ĴʣԼȱһ׳Чĸĸ﷽ݹʱ׼дʱп5%ӦڿɹˮƽǣҹѾԶԶ׼

˽й1997û޽ΣijⲢζڲûκ⡣ʵϣ1997걣йϵҵĹҹ̶ʣеĽơ仰˵ҵ״Σйðȫա

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ƶ࣬ҹƶѾڹԤΧ֮ڣҼκιҶءIJƽȷӳ˳࣬ࡢͽ࣬Ӿ÷չ˵ҹȥ쾭÷չǴᷢչ˵ҹĹȥ20괴˾޴᲻ƽȡ᲻ƽȶȶкܴĸӰ졣ƶũ޷ҵѧʧҵĹ˶ΪȶƶҲᵼ·᲻ƽȵĽеõӳϷҵ˺¼Ѿ᲻ƽȵľӡȺȺЩ¸ʧҵְԼƶӵĽũ񣬴˵Ѿһ֮¡ͨ᲻Ⱥ֮һͨ˰ߺ͹ĿʵƸתƣɸԣȺƶȺתƣҵĻᡢ֯Ӫš֯ȵȣڷƵãǴڵĻƸٷߡǵĿǰΪֹҹᷢչлĹ滮ͼƻҲῴߺͷ̨,δһʱС߻кܴĸĹۣƶҲõԵضƣìܵĽһᷢչеĻơʾ򵥽ᰲȫرǹȫܵ˺Ϸΰ϶񻯵Ļԭǰ֮ij,Ƿ޴ٺͰȫĹң᲻ȫͰ̲ţͶʻܵ˺

̬Դ⣬ʯΪҹʯԴ˾ռ٣̽ѶԽԽҹʯ͹ȱ𽥼Ӵ󣬶Խڹʯ͵ԽԽҹȡʯ͹Ӧټҵľй2020ǰԴǾ޴ġʯԴֲȼޣ緶ΧڶʯԴᲢս͵ͻ

2090شȻֺͳǵصɳԼոչȥSARSйĻ̬˾ӡɳԡɺ𡢻ȳȸȻֺϮй֮һ̬ƻɵľʧ൱ڵֵ14%

йרMichel C. Oksenberg̫ƽίԱ¹˾̫ĵίУ쵼ġδйоС顱йصĻ⡣ˮȾȾʴԼˮԴȱѾӰ콡ʡϹΪδйչijԡƽⷢչȻԴƻһǺӵҹȫ潨СԴͻ⣬ȫ潨Сᣬʵ˾ֵ3000Ԫ˵ԴԴǷܹͨԴõ㣿ȻǺܴĿ꣬DZϾй˿ڻ̫˵ϸͷͨԴõʵ֣һĿܷõԴ֧־ֵо⡣Դȫ潨СĻĿ꣬ҹIJʲôͨʵ֣սַʽʷ϶Ӧù

ƽĶۣϸ90̨һֱڳDzԸ⿴ķչ̨ڴ½̶ͬȵĽͣʹԽԽͣⲻӦһصźţʵӦΪ̨źţڶ̨ϵϣǺ⡣⣬̨쵼˵һϵƶ̨жҲǹģ̨֯мƻжһ֡2004̨쵼˴ѡй2010ǰ½ᷢչӰ죬ĿǰDzȷģΪDz֪˭ѡˮѡ̨һĿԼδ̨Ҫ̨⣬Ӱ̨⽫Ǵ½̨ߵĹؼǿйһ쵼Ҫָ꣬Ҳһ쵼˵ǻۡų̨֧֣̂ĽǷdzѵģǶ̨ߵʧ̨ĸĽ룬仰˵̨ȫսԵһ֣δ൱һʱڣ̨ĸԤʹ˽̨Ѷȣ½̨֮Ħڴڣ϶ԾúᷢչɻСij̨صһ⣬ֵ⣬ͳһͶӰӰ첻ɵ͹

ȫڳΪȫչҪ鱨ίԱ19972000ԤⱨıȽϷ֣ڹȥļУȫ򻯵ӰѾ1997Ԥϣ仰˵2000״1997ǶȫӰĹƹ͡ó֯ϢӸáڿó֯Ӱ첢ԤϵڼҪIJҵϣó֯Ӱ콫ͨӰҹúᷢչνṹ

ȫӰ͹֣ijʺ̸һܺõ֤Ȩ֮䡢֮֯ȫ򹫹͹ΣýԤϣƿֲ塢ȫȫԴˮԴ⡢⡢ʳ⡢ȵȣھ÷չԼԽԽԣͨȫıҪԽԽǿҡ

ѾΪ⹲ͬע⣺

--йڹȥ20걣ֵľٶȻֶܱãΣ

--δ10й÷չٵսϲͶʲôһЩսϲͶ˷-ӦǶйõķչӰж

--йóɳIJڶ̶Ӱִ

--йõijʹ滹ܵ˺

Щܴ󣬺ܸӣҲ໥˵ڵĸĻشǷdzؼģй̬ȵĵߡ

δһʱڣйܻᱣֽϸߵֱͶʡҲһЩȷĻЩܻʹֱͶȻ٣Щ任ĻȨĵµڲϵţܵڲΣҵIJɶһԼйWTOijŵⲿϵţҳõĻʩͶʻŷޡӡȡطδйʽֱͶȡұȽµͶʷգ˰ߵȡ

δӰйչؿ»йúڲĽṹ⣺ṹҵṹìܼԼۼ۸Ѽ۸仯Эȵȣεìܡ

ΣʹǽΪעΣأǿڵ漰֮ǰûпǵأΣغܶ࣬ԵΡ⡢ƽ⡢⡢Σ⡢ƶȸĸ⡢߲ڲŽ⡢Աβ⡢Ⱥϵ⡢⡢ͨ⡢ķȨ½⣬ԼθĸͺȵȡһʾרʹõԲͬһЩأǽΪΣ⡣Ҫרоϸɼ͹ΣоĽҪΣǿڹеúΡǶֵһֱӸ߲£ʵֲܽ⣬пܳΪԹ޺ͲֵעǣֹԱ̰۸ѹաΥҼͣϸִеѴڵìܣһΣ仰˵ΣܻɴģûΣĵ

ΣĺͳҲʹרǹע⡣еרΪʧҵϵ⣬źĹϵ⣬й;÷չеĺ⣬ȻרҶĿΣϵһ⣬֮ʧȥĺȱijЩԱȨı˽̰۸ܡܻ硢ܻеĹϵЩԱĸܵԹʧȥģҲӴʧȥ롣ⲻһ⣬Ҳһƶ⡣Ŀǰҹ״뷢ҵIJҪڣҵõ£ûڿհףҵ÷أȻԼýھе֮ϣȱλҹ񾭼õӰҪڣѣԼͶʣֱɹ񾭼ֵľ޴ʧӴ˽ڷգгҡ

ĺͳʹйڷչٵΪѵսйй˾޴ĹսǰûΣûдĶδģԵƵȱĽʱӰЧʺִЧҹǰĵ״˸Ϊ»£¡ĸ↑гôٽ˾ˮƽǣˮƽȴ¡һǮļڴʹһʧȥʶ̬֧šáʱҹȱһֵԴƺΪѧߺĹʶӦ˵Щⲻг÷չıȻ෴ҪгĿ걳۵ġ

̲͹⣬Ϲ¹˾2003̷棬йİ̲棬ΪйڵĴ̩10ǰĴͬϹרΪйȡЧʩ򣬸Ⱦ̲й˽ԶԶĿǰԤƵ1000ˣܻߴ3000ˣйΪϸȾ̲ĹҡϹפԱǽĹҲ˶ĵǡеıΪ̲ھõijɳɵӰҪȹȥԤϵصö࣬DzȡʩҽٱıԵ̲׳꣬µĺչˣЩӵ˲ǵĽ⵱Ҫ⣬żɢ¶ʹ޷ܡЩ֮ͯûִҪıɣǵ¾úĵˡڰ̲ϷǾóʴڱıԵй̲ԤƵÿΪ20-30%רѾй̲δ龰̲ɱĹơ̲ߵЧʹơԼ˾ʱȵȡߵĹڱ͵ĵڶ10꣬йÿڰ̲ĻΪ170-270ˣɴɵ2002-2015֮ÿGDP1.8-2.2%δHIV׼ȷԤѵģΪһϵиӵأԤʩЧΣȺΪʽĸı䣨û仵ȡDzԿ϶ĿǰHIVȾӡйԤҽѧѧԺרҺϤй̲ĹרҹƣȡЧʩй̲ĸȾ2010пܴﵽ1000򡱡ڷ2003괺֮SARS̲ͬ⻹ûйزŵ㹻ӣ֪̲һҽ⣬һӵ⣬ԭǰ̲̲ߴ޴Ҳ޴ʵ̲ҲãSARSҲãֻййΣıɽһǡ

塢2010ǰֿܵĹҷչǰ

2015ȫƣΧδרҶԻ2015ǰйķչüѺͲȷҪ󾭼ÿͬʱҪϵʹᡢκ;÷չѹսЩսӰ쵽ȨĺϷԣ档ó飬ȫ򻯵Ĺ㷺ϢȫṹԱォ;ûҴﵽһµˮƽͣЩҽӾѾ㷺ڵĹʺ͹⡣רҿֲͬνս˹һһͷѵйһ侭ʵ;սܱߵй෴龰ʹרǸԸ⿴йΪһƽñڲȶ

Charles Wolf䡶йõĶϲߡָйδ10ٵĶ˾й㷺ĿԡЩ˿ԷֳƶԺͽṹԵģʧҵƶ͸ܣԵģ簬̲ȾˮԴȾԼԴڣڽΣֱͶʵήȫԵģ̨½źͳͻԼܱ߹ϵŵȣʵϣйڹȥ20ѾЩеʧҵܡˮԴ⡢̲ͽڴȵȣǣйȻ侭÷չijԡЩضйδӰҪȷЩǷδóչӰ죿ΪʲôӰ죿βŻӰ죿

йҲ˹ĵʯͼ۸йõijսĹƺйĿǰڵľƱʯͼ۸񲨶йõijԭԤôءʣµϵĵأֱͶʵή̨³ͻDzģҲ޷Ԥϵġ

һʵȫ潨СԤĿȲǰ

̲ڿѧIJϽõijĹʻ뾭õЭչԴ̬ɳúЧҹ񲻷ֵͳУضڷչл档봫-һͨСҹ뷢֮似IJ࣬ṩҹúᷢչļٽҵṹͲҵṹתͣǿҹڹϵľһ棬ͨӦϾĻԴΣ򹫹Σ˿ںԴѹԹ㲼Դ͸,ǰҪĿǰвʲ͹ҵЧ⡣ᷢչDZھ÷չмʱ𣨵𡢳ƶ𣩡ľҵԴͻĿɳýΪҹ2050ﵽеȷҵսĿṩǿĻһõĹʻڹʺ͹ڶҪ˵Σڴڹʵ͹ʹĹУͨƶȰţʹԵڲⲿĹ͹ΣܹЧķʽں͹ʳͻȼ١ķչģʽ£ֻ;޷л档

ĿǰйڶδչߵĹؼʱڣй2010ǰķչδķչ·Ӧø˲йδչľ󲿷ΪҲӰδչҺαز롯򡮹Ա˾δֻԼ顯ôйͺѿһЧķչ滮ͽһӴʩٽ뽫ʹҹӦΣЧİ취

ƫȫ潨СԤĿ

徭ʵõǿGDPԤĿáξӢӷչл棬ƸмУܵھõĿٷչǿ÷չı䷢չӲսԣΪչԽһУӾ÷չе⣬⡢ҵ⡢½Լҵͽ⣬ֱӺƸоۼͶ߱ϣֻء󣬹£óгȫиصĸԽԽأ򲻶ϼӾĹʾΣʹڵķչڲͻƽ֮䡢֮ϵšУ˿Сijɹ󲿷˽֮Ե£ġʮġھ÷չʵȫĿ꽫ܵõʵ֡ȫ潨Сijŵ㣬ȫˮƽ

޷ﵽȫ潨СԤĿ

ҵѴڵľڲĸìܺᷢչеĸⲻܵõЧʻڵͻ¼еڲìܣ÷չжϻõˡࡢԼļ󣬵ͻӰ쵽εȶԡڹгرǹܽһ󣬹Ҿöڹгһڹг͹ʾõIJھΣжϾ÷չ̣õˣ뽵ͣʧҵìܺͻһ󣬹ߣȱ̼أٶȽͣʧҵìܡ

һֿԣƶйԤȫ潨СĿꡣ෴ڵڶ龰УӾֻҺͳͻ龰Уܻἤͻͺ϶ֿԵսǣ

---ᡢٲܵõЭչйȫ潨СĿ꽫ܵӰ죬ҼȶķչĿԤʵֽپ޴ѡ

---ȫ£Чԣں͹ԾὡչҪģ仰˵ʵֳȫ;ⷢչĻ

---غȫ򻯵ĸӰһʵӰ̶ȡڹìܵĽ̶ȣìй2010ǰĹؼ

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1оʾɱѧѧϵ³ͬ־ִеġ³ͬ־ݽ˳ͷ

2NIC: global Trends 2015A dialogue About the Future with Nongovernmental Expert, December 2000.

3NIC: global Trends 2015A dialogue About the Future with Nongovernmental Expert, December 2000.

4 ҪעǣEXCELܸĽﲻרһ֮Ĺϵ顣ΪΪСͳƵĽܻܿ᲻ݵ϶ľרݺע⻹ǾһԵġ

5 20062010ꡰǷпܳΣ⣬ֵڻشʱԵñȽϳɡڡпܣԲ󡱣ųԡԼС޷Ԥ⡱֮ȽģĻش𲢲ټ򵥵á/񡱵ĶַԴ𰸽йĻʧƫģ˵ȷ򻯵ıѡ𰸻һ̶ڸǵһЩмֵϢʾԡһǻڵģֻǡԡġСͬѡΪǷԽıѡ𰸸ijɡܡԲ󡱣һ㡱Ժܴ󡱣ȫܡĻһڵĻشһҲѼϢ

6Ku-Hyun Jung, Anuchat Poungsomlee, Mochammad Maksum and Tae Kuu Park, Civil Society Response to Asia Crisis, Institute of East and West Studies Yonsei University, 2003p17.

7Ku-Hyun Jung, Anuchat Poungsomlee, Mochammad Maksum and Tae Kuu Park, Civil Society Response to Asia Crisis, Institute of East and West Studies Yonsei University, 2003, p18.

8NIC, Global Trends 2015: A dialogue About the Future with Nongovernmental Experts, 2000

9йƵжϡcei.gov.cn/expert/2003081801.htm

10Pual Krugman, The Age of Diminished Expectations: U.S. Economic Policy in the 1990s, the third edition, Published by MIT Press, 2000, pp22.

11ѾҵѹתΪչcei.gov.cn/expert/2003082804.htm

12Charles Wolf: Fault Lines in Chinas Economic Terrain, RAND, 2003.

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19Charles Wolf: Fault Lines in Chinas Economic Terrain, RAND, 2003.

20Charles Wolf: Fault Lines in Chinas Economic Terrain, RAND, 2003.

21Charles Wolf: Fault Lines in Chinas Economic Terrain, RAND, 2003

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24India, China face AIDS catastrophe, cnn.com/2003/HEALTH/07/03/asia.aids/index.html

25Charles Wolf: Fault Lines in Chinas Economic Terrain, RAND, 2003.

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28NIC, Global Trends 2015: A dialogue About the Future with Nongovernmental Experts, 2000.

29Charles Wolf: Fault Lines in Chinas Economic Terrain, RAND, 2003.

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